hoog gasprijs blijft drijfveer voor warmtepompadoptie

2026-04-15 binnenland

Amsterdam, woensdag, 15 april 2026.
De verkoop van warmtepompen in Nederland stijgt opnieuw, gedreven door de hoge gasprijzen. In 2025 werden ruim 136.000 systemen verkocht, vooral volledig elektrische varianten. Hybride warmtepompen blijven achter ondanks een subsidie van maximaal 2.125 euro. Het werkelijke aantal geïnstalleerde systemen ligt mogelijk hoger, want niet iedereen vraagt subsidie aan. Koopwoningen maken het grootste deel uit van de transities, met regionale verschillen in adoptie. Noordelijke provincies gaan voorop, Groningen en Drenthe staan bovenaan. Het nationaal beleid blijft onzeker, met plannen voor een verplichting vanaf 2029. Een einddatum van de salderingsregeling in 2027 zorgt daarnaast voor twijfel.

sales momentum continues despite policy shifts

The sale of heat pumps in the Netherlands increased again in 2025, with 136,000 units sold [1]. This marks a rise compared to 130,000 in 2024 [1]. However, sales remain below the 179,000 recorded in 2023 [1]. The growth reflects continued consumer interest amid volatile energy markets. While fully electric models dominate new installations, hybrid systems lag behind despite financial incentives [1]. Market analysts note that policy changes, including the cancellation of a planned mandatory requirement in 2024, initially caused market instability in existing housing [1]. The sector now shows resilience but faces ongoing uncertainty [1].

financial drivers shape consumer decisions

High gas prices continue to push homeowners toward heat pump adoption [2]. Although electricity costs have also risen since 2022, they have done so less sharply than gas prices [2]. As a result, electric heating offers relative savings potential [2]. The average cost of installing a hybrid heat pump is €6,200, including setup fees [1]. Buyers can claim a subsidy of up to €2,125 through the ISDE program [1]. Annual savings are estimated at around €600 [1]. For fully electric systems, installation averages €12,000 with subsidies reaching €3,025 and yearly savings near €1,000 [1]. These figures influence household investment choices [1].

regional disparities reveal local trends

Adoption rates vary significantly across regions [2]. Northern provinces lead nationwide, with Groningen, Drenthe, and Friesland showing the highest uptake [2]. In contrast, areas connected to district heating networks report lower installation rates [2]. By the end of 2025, approximately 351,000 owner-occupied homes had received subsidized heat pumps—a nearly 25% increase from 2024 [3]. Provinces such as North Holland saw strong growth, rising 29% with 9,084 new installations [5]. South Holland reported 27% growth, adding 8,825 units [6]. Utrecht’s market grew by 26%, equivalent to 4,933 new systems [7]. Regional infrastructure and awareness contribute to these differences [2].

policy framework under scrutiny

Government support remains central to adoption, yet future funding is uncertain [8]. The ISDE subsidy scheme, introduced in 2016, has supported hundreds of thousands of installations [2]. However, its continuation beyond 2030 is unclear [8]. Similarly, the salderingsregeling, which allows offsetting grid-fed and returned electricity, expires in 2027—raising concerns among consumers [8]. Plans exist to mandate hybrid heat pumps starting in 2029 when no district heating network is available [8]. Originally proposed by former Minister Hugo de Jonge to start in 2026, the obligation was delayed [8]. Current geopolitical tensions affecting global energy prices further complicate planning [8].

market outlook hinges on stability

Forecasts for 2026 suggest between 106,000 and 216,000 heat pump sales depending on energy price developments [1]. The baseline projection stands at 156,000 units [1]. Continued reliance on fossil fuels makes households vulnerable to external shocks such as conflicts in Eastern Europe and the Middle East [8]. Experts emphasize efficiency gains from modern heat pumps, which convert electricity into heat effectively [8]. Even with rising power tariffs, long-term savings outweigh initial investments for most users [8]. Yet hesitation persists due to unresolved policy questions [8]. The real installed base may exceed official numbers, as not all owners apply for subsidies [2].

Bronnen

subsidie warmtepompen