vluchten in gevaar door brandstoftekort
Amsterdam, vrijdag, 3 april 2026.
een sluipend kerosinetekort bedreigt de luchtvaart. door de oorlog in het midden-oosten blijft de straat van hormuz grotendeels afgesloten. halverwege mei zou dit kunnen leiden tot geannuleerde vluchten. luchtvaartmaatschappijen bereiden zich voor op rampscenario’s. de prijs van kerosine is al ruim verdubbeld. normaal kost brandstof 27 procent van de vluchtkosten, nu is dat 40 tot 45 procent. grote internationale vluchten zijn het eerst in gevaar. maatschappijen overwegen grotere vliegtuigen thuis te houden. er is slechts een wekenvoorraden kerosine. experts vrezen dat zelfs na een snelle oorlogsbeëindiging de gevolgen maanden aanhouden. nederland en het verenigd koninkrijk zijn kwetsbaar door hun afhankelijkheid van import.
escalating fuel concerns for airlines
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to the Middle East conflict threatens Europe’s kerosene supply. Airlines warn that flights could be cancelled within six weeks if the situation persists. While no immediate shortages are reported, rising fuel prices and delivery uncertainties increase sector tension. Half of Europe’s kerosene imports normally come from the Persian Gulf [1]. Disruptions have already caused kerosene prices to more than double since the start of the conflict [3].
major carriers adjust operations
Airline executives are taking steps to manage escalating costs and potential shortages. Lufthansa is considering grounding Boeing 747 aircraft to conserve fuel [1]. Intercontinental routes, particularly those to Asia and North America, may be cut back first [1]. Joris Melkert, aerospace economist at TU Delft, noted airlines typically operate on narrow profit margins—less than ten euros per ticket—which are now erased by soaring fuel expenses [3]. Long-haul flights lasting eleven to thirteen hours are especially vulnerable to cancellation [1].
pricing pressures and strategic hedging
Kerosene now accounts for 40–45% of total flight costs, up from a normal level of 27%, placing severe financial strain on carriers [3]. Air France-KLM has introduced temporary surcharges of €50 for intercontinental flights and €10 for European ones [3]. Low-cost carrier Corendon avoids price increases thanks to full hedging against high kerosene prices secured before the war began [3]. Analysts note that even if hostilities cease soon, damaged infrastructure and logistical delays mean disruptions could persist for months [3].
uneven regional vulnerability
While Asian countries face acute kerosene shortages immediately due to disrupted shipments, Europe remains under growing pressure [3]. The United Kingdom and the Netherlands are particularly exposed because of their reliance on imported kerosene via Rotterdam [3]. Smaller regional airports connected through pipelines to the Rotterdam-Schiphol-Frankfurt corridor risk early supply issues [3]. Rico Luman, transportation economist at ING, stated that “even if the war ends tomorrow, it will take considerable time before everything returns to normal” [3].
forward planning amid uncertainty
With typical stockpiles covering only weeks rather than months due to high storage and transport costs, airlines lack deep reserves [3]. Executives including Ryanair’s Michael O’Leary anticipate serious supply problems emerging in May 2026 should the conflict continue [4]. Airlines are evaluating whether to purchase kerosene several months in advance despite elevated prices—a difficult decision involving significant financial risk [1]. Industry leaders stress coordination across borders is essential to prevent fragmented national responses during the unfolding energy disruption [5].